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Thread: General stock market discussion

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  1. #101 Default  
    Following up to the trading strategy that I said I had been tracking (via iVolatility and the 10:30am trade), it is doing better now.
    Trading Days Tracked: 255
    Win%:55.92
    AvgWinAmt: 1.11%
    AvgLossAmt:0.86%
    AvgDailyReturn: 0.24%
    Kelly: 21.68%

    Annualized, that's around an 80% return, ignoring taxes and trading costs (the latter would two trades a day, one in, and one out from the previous day).

    I'm not actually trading it, but I'm impressed by it - usually when you have these things and you look at them, over more time, they get worse - this one improves over time (so far).
    I would still rather see more data, so going to keep tracking it.



    I also still think the way to go is keep a short list of the volatility oscillators (usually earnings driven large cap, AMZN is a common one, as an example), and "just" sell puts.
    You can see charts where the pattern is clear, such as this:
    [IMG]http://www.ivolatility.com/nchart.j?charts=volatility,options_volume&1=ticker *AMZN:NASDAQ,R*1,period*12,all*4,schema*options_bi g&2=ticker*AMZN:NASDAQ,R*1,period*12,schema*option s_big_narrow&add=x:1[/IMG]
    (AMZN)

    Sell puts when the (in this case, yellow) line is where you think is a peak, and either let them expire or close them out when you think the line (yellow, on that chart) is at the low.
    (you can see that the high and low are in separate months, so you really wouldn't have to worry about closing it, just let them expire for full value)

    All of the ones that should be on that list are in the top 200 traded names, so if worst case scenario one goes down and you get assigned, then you are holding shares in something that will very likely recover in the near future, so it isn't hugely risky (short term, it is risk, but long term you are holding a desirable asset - so your biggest risk is something like Enron or the like, which may have been in there, and then vanished).
    Just the right amount of way too much.

    Don't make me assume my ultimate form.
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  2. #102 Default  
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    ^ I can at least confirm the last month or so, don't have enough data to do any legitimate numbers though.
    2012 TT-RS
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  3. #103 Default  
    Quote Originally Posted by EJF View Post
    ^ I can at least confirm the last month or so, don't have enough data to do any legitimate numbers though.
    Are you saying you are trading the first one, or the second one, or neither and just tracking one of them?
    Just the right amount of way too much.

    Don't make me assume my ultimate form.
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  4. #104 Default  
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    I'm just tracking ivolatility. Sorry for the confusion

    Edited: This is my second edit, I caught the dumb...
    Last edited by EJF; 11-05-2013 at 05:34 PM.
    2012 TT-RS
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  5. #105 Default  
    So there is a bill to "kill" Fannie and Freddie? Need to find out what they mean by kill and what would happen if one happened to own stock in both of those entities.
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  6. #106 Default  
    My Intel has taken a beating the last week. Still up 20% on it but not sure if it should keep it. Thinking yes though.
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  7. #107 Default  
    I think I'm going to sell everything I have either in Fall or spring to buy another property.

    I am not exactly optimistic for the market for the rest of this year.
    Oh Yeah!
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  8. #108 Default  
    I bought THCZ last week. It's not traded by all brokerage companies, but hopefully it does soon. It's a hemp infused beverage. I hope it gets at least 8th of what Monster has accomplished with energy drink industry.

    Anyone else playing with penny stocks?
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  9. #109 Default  
    Since I need to live off my cash, I have been trading my IRA account (which got all of my 401k money into it).

    In three years, my 401k (limited by what I could buy in there) made 5% (over all three years, not each) vs if I had just held cash (ignoring the massive company matching though).

    In three months, I am up nearly 9% with the money in my IRA now.

    Although have a risky options play going on CMG and AAPL right now, so will see where that goes.
    Just the right amount of way too much.

    Don't make me assume my ultimate form.
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  10. #110 Default  
    Quote Originally Posted by omgomg View Post
    Since I need to live off my cash, I have been trading my IRA account (which got all of my 401k money into it).

    In three years, my 401k (limited by what I could buy in there) made 5% (over all three years, not each) vs if I had just held cash (ignoring the massive company matching though).

    In three months, I am up nearly 9% with the money in my IRA now.

    Although have a risky options play going on CMG and AAPL right now, so will see where that goes.
    how many chicken nuggets do you charge as a consultant fee?
    Oh Yeah!
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  11. #111 Default  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rafal View Post
    I bought THCZ last week. It's not traded by all brokerage companies, but hopefully it does soon. It's a hemp infused beverage. I hope it gets at least 8th of what Monster has accomplished with energy drink industry.

    Anyone else playing with penny stocks?
    Didn't you see Wolf of Wall Street? They're making 50% on the pink sheet stocks.

    -Justin
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  12. #112 Default  
    ALL OF THE NUGGETS

    Right now I have the same portfolio that I told you about before, but weighted.
    More REIT type things, a sin stock mutual fund, and two non-value types (AAPL and CMG).
    That's 80% of the portfolio.
    Then the 20% I use to sell puts on things with high implied volatility - so far nearly always TSLA.
    (I don't just look for high IV, as I would just end up always in biotechs and blowing up - but I also look for something that shouldn't crater and instead goes through big swings)
    If it gets assigned, that's fine and I just hold until profitable again and actually end up making more that way.
    Anything left that isn't tied up in that during the period until it expires, I put into momentum plays.

    Although right now have the whole 20% tied up in AAPL and CMG momentum plays (well, less momentum on AAPL and more indicators/swing and earnings).

    But pulling this around earnings time can be risky, so the 20% could blow up in my face.

    The 80% is just all dividend stuff for the most part.
    Just the right amount of way too much.

    Don't make me assume my ultimate form.
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  13. #113 Default  
    You guys see the people who loan money in return for stock?
    They have to do it in such a way not to trigger the SEC, as many/most of the ways are not allowed.
    But they go after companies either already in a death spiral, or ones that are hurting bad and they put them into a death spiral.
    All on the pink sheets.

    It works out to essentially be a pawn shop, but for companies/stocks.

    Essentially you find a cratering company/stock, you approach them and say I will loan you $1M now.
    You have N months to pay me back at some high interest rate, higher than what you could get from traditional places - but they won't loan to you, b/c you are terrible and unlikely to pay back.
    If you don't pay me back by then, then I get a much larger amount (the value is fixed, not the amount of shares - so if the stock is tanking, they don't care, they still get some fixed value), in stock, and I can sell it immediately.
    They issue shares, shares get sold, and the combination of more shares and the huge dump in shares tank the stock more, and so on - death spiral.

    That's a bit of a butchering of it - but the general idea.
    Just the right amount of way too much.

    Don't make me assume my ultimate form.
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  14. #114 Default  
    Quote Originally Posted by omgomg View Post
    Since I need to live off my cash, I have been trading my IRA account (which got all of my 401k money into it).

    In three years, my 401k (limited by what I could buy in there) made 5% (over all three years, not each) vs if I had just held cash (ignoring the massive company matching though).

    In three months, I am up nearly 9% with the money in my IRA now.

    Although have a risky options play going on CMG and AAPL right now, so will see where that goes.
    And a great part of this is no taxes. I started doing this with my IRA about 3 years and am up just about 50%, I don't take the risks you do, I just buy a bunch of what I think is a quality stock and try and get out in a few days with at least a 1% gain, trades are free so that helps. Has been working good up until a couple months ago when I bought MSFT, went right down and I refuse to get rid of a stock at a loss. I'm 99% sure they will come back and at least I'm getting a dividend of a little over 3% while I wait. The best thing is gains are not reported as income in IRA so I can continue getting my subsidized insurance
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  15. #115 Default  
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    Quote Originally Posted by BadJew View Post
    And a great part of this is no taxes. I started doing this with my IRA about 3 years and am up just about 50%, I don't take the risks you do, I just buy a bunch of what I think is a quality stock and try and get out in a few days with at least a 1% gain, trades are free so that helps. Has been working good up until a couple months ago when I bought MSFT, went right down and I refuse to get rid of a stock at a loss. I'm 99% sure they will come back and at least I'm getting a dividend of a little over 3% while I wait. The best thing is gains are not reported as income in IRA so I can continue getting my subsidized insurance
    They tend to alternate OS releases between good and shit. 7 Was good, 8 (imho) is shit, so maybe they'll go up when 9 comes out.

    -Justin
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  16. #116 Default  
    They are skipping 9 and going straight to 10, suppose to be a huge improvement. One of the things that have it down now is they are basically going to give it away for free as a subscription based upgrade for first year. But I think their real money is going to be based in cloud services in the future
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  17. #117 Default  
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    Microsoft's money has been and will continue to be in enterprise, IMO.
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  18. #118 Default  
    I ran into the head designer for Apple down the street from where I live this week.
    Amazon, Google, and Microsoft all have offices in the same block where I saw him (well, two or three blocks, maybe).
    He was outside of Starbucks.

    Not sure if that can be read to mean anything. I wish it were, lol.


    The market is in a huge bubble right now, so BTFD works - and my 20% strategy is essentially a leveraged version of that via options (I would never do leverage outright, but am okay with options).

    So the 80%, I just pick value stuff, diversified dividend stuff.
    The 20% is the "sell OTM puts" which amounts to BTFD if you get assigned/exercised while holding (on the upside, you get paid more to take that risk, on the downside you risk it happens to be the day the bubble breaks, so you don't get a recovery post holding, but you get a crash and a multi-year wait if you don't just eat the loss entirely).

    The momentum stuff is another one that works right now due to the bubble.
    Banks are making it expensive to short shit - you pay more for the right to short, due to expensive lending (in that context) - BUT overall lending is super cheap, so things like funds and VC are borrowing cheap money and going long on stuff (why the difference, is more complicated than here, for me).
    That mixed with way more short players after the last crash - they all want to say that this time they will catch it - and then they burn out their money waiting for when it will crash.
    JP Morgan said something along the lines that the market can happily stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (trying to bet on it crashing).

    So the upward bias helps what looks like a winning momentum strategy (which in the end is still essentially BTFD), but during a crash or right after, won't work.

    I have spoken to so many guys, usually younger than me and at bars (EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE THINKING) and they all think they are master traders - but they haven't even been through the things I've seen, let alone the prior history - I just sort of nod and smile on that.

    At some point this will blow up - but until then, Buy The Fucking Dip.


    I own AAPL and CMG as the underlying stocks, for long term, but also am doing the options thing (for short term - like end of next month).
    If I were going to sell puts on TSLA right now (cash is tied up, but would), then I would do it weekly (and was).
    TSLA, AAPL, and I think CMG too - among others - have so much volume that they have weekly options - so you can trade more often - if that is good or bad for you (great for the ones taking the trading fees).


    CMG I bought after my road trip this year.
    Every single one I have ever been in, everywhere in the country, has a line out the door (or around the inside, depending on weather).
    And they have 1/5th the number of stores of McD's in the US, and McD's is empty (comparatively).
    CMG doesn't franchise, which is part of why they have fewer - and the growth is already "Baked In" to the current price anyway - but there are plenty that don't seem to get that, so it gets big pops on good earnings.
    And I see good earnings for them for some time yet.

    SHAK is another one (Shake Shack), except they have a terrible corp structure and shittier debt issues.

    Starbucks is actually likely to do well over the next few years - great margins on their products and introducing more things like food and delivery.


    As for the concept of buying things where they are quality and you think they will go up - you can leverage that with options.
    Either:
    1) sell puts - that way you get paid and it likely won't go down, in that you think it will go up. If it does go down, you get paid to take that risk either way, and you were going to buy it anyway - so you just got it discounted, and you should then still think it will go up - so you get a mini-leveraged effect on the purchase (or a discount, whichever way of seeing it floats your boat).

    2) buy options ATM and a month or two out - most of the greeks wash away ATM, other than time decay (which is small when a month or two out, but is bad when you get in a week or two out, so sell prior to that.
    You get a leveraged effect here in that the underlying may be like $120 and the options might be like $7 (just making it up, but that's about right).
    Due to the way the greeks work, you then get every cent increase (sort of - it doesn't quite step at a cent rate - more like 5-10 cents - depends on the stock), but on a lower amount.
    So if you were going to risk $120k on it, you would get 1000 shares of the underlying outright buying stock. If it went up $12, you then made 10%, or $12k.
    But if you did it with ATM options, $120k gets you over 17000 shares effectively, and you get (nearly) the same moves on it - so a huge difference (off the top of my head, I am not sure how close to a $12 per share return you would get there, but close enough) - so you get a multiples return.... if you were to wait that along - frequently you are in and out faster anyway.

    Depending on where you trade, the options are likely more expensive to trade, especially in volume, and then there are fancy things where it gets cheaper for you (or faster, is some cases where liquidity for options themselves is lower) to exercise (American option style) and execute with underlying shares and sell those. But then you usually need a broker call to handle it.

    That doesn't do a great job explaining it - but close enough.
    Just the right amount of way too much.

    Don't make me assume my ultimate form.
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  19. #119 Default Love checking out this forum :) 
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